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Crude Options Skewed to Downside but Cover for Any Large Moves

OIL OPTIONS

The crude options maintain volatilities skewed to the puts as the market looks for downside cover due to economic recession concerns. New Chinese covid related restrictions may also limit the oil demand recovery following the fall in apparent oil demand this year.

  • The Dec22 contracts in WTI and Brent are showing 25 delta puts at around a 4% premium to 25 delta calls. The skew has maintained relatively unchanged since Aug 23 despite significant changes in the futures market. The skew remains in favour of the downside across the forward curve with the Brent Dec23 skew still as high as 10%.
  • ATM implied volatility has ticked higher this week up to 49% from 41% mid last week.
  • Open Brent crude option interest shows volumes covering both large potential downside and upside moves. Significant open interest across contracts out to Dec24 sits on the downside between 55$/bbl and 80$/bbl and on the upside between 120$/bbl and 150$/bbl.
    • Brent NOV 22 down -2.4% at 93.31$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 22 down -2.4% at 87.43$/bbl

Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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