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Crude Rally on Middle East Tensions Likely to Fade: Energy Aspects

OIL

The recent uptick in oil prices from Israel/Iran tensions has priced in a little bit too early according to Energy Aspects Head of Research Amrita Sen.

  • “If geopolitical fundamentals persist, we can stay about $90/bbl for quite some time but we don’t think we are actually going to get supply losses” she said.
  • “I don’t think either side [Israel/Iran] wants to cross the red line that leads to sustained attacks” Sen said.
  • “It’s a little bit of geopolitical price premium priced in, we do think that should start to fade in the coming weeks – we saw similar situations in the initial phases of the Israel/Gaza conflict starting” she said.
  • Sen added that US shale output is slowing but still growing which along with large amounts of OPEC+ spare capacity will help to keep a lid on prices rising much beyond $100/bbl.
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