Crude Rangebound on Low Volumes While Waiting on OPEC

Crude futures and spreads are holding rangebound again today on low trading volumes due to the US Thanksgiving holiday as the market waits for clarity of future OPEC production policy.

• The upside risk of extended or even a deepening of the OPEC group or voluntary member cuts is providing some support despite the disrupted schedule as Nigeria and Angola are pushing for higher production quotas. Weaker global demand growth driven by mixed data from China and better than expected supplies have been weighing on oil markets since early October.
• The prompt Brent spread is edging back up after falling into contango for a couple of brief periods in the last week. The longer dated June24-Dec24 Brent spread is still holding in steady backwardation with the spread above levels seen in Q2 2023 but down from the peak of 3.7$/bbl seen in September.
• Technicals show the bear threat remains with key support for the Brent Jan24 contract is down at a Fibonacci retracement at 75.51$/bbl.and short term resistance is at the Nov 14 high of 83.97$/bbl.
  • Brent JAN 24 up 0.4% at 81.75$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24 down -0.4% at 76.77$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent down -0.13$/bbl at -4.98$/bbl
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.02$/bbl at 0.15$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 1.95$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 unchanged at -0.15$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.24$/bbl at 2.55$/bbl