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Crude Recovers on Speculation of OPEC+ Cut and China Easing

OIL

Crude jumped back up 4$/bbl on the reports yesterday that OPEC+ may consider cutting production targets at the next meeting on Dec 4 and on speculation China could ease covid restrictions after recent protests.

  • Falling prices and weaker demand expectations due to an economic slowdown could increase the chances of a further production cut from the OPEC+ group following the cuts to November and December targets. OPEC+ could cut another 2mbpd according to consultant FGE.
    • Brent JAN 23 up 1.8% at 84.72$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 23 up 1.6% at 78.44$/bbl
    • Gasoil DEC 22 up 0.2% at 888.75$/mt
    • WTI-Brent down -0.32$/bbl at -6.25$/bbl
  • Russian output has held up relatively well ahead of EU sanctions and a high oil price cap could help maintain supply and reduce the risk of a supply cut in retaliation from Russia. EU members are yet to agree a cap price on Russian oil despite further discussions last night. The latest level to be debated of 62$/bbl is still considered too high for some nations such as Poland, Estonia and Lithuania.
    • Brent JAN 23-FEB 23 down -0.01$/bbl at -0.71$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 23-MAR 23 up 0.09$/bbl at 0.19$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.28$/bbl at 2.67$/bbl
  • Time spreads have also recovered some ground on the speculation of a tighter market supply to recover the losses from earlier in the day. The prompt Brent spread has continued to fall ahead of the Jan23 future contract expiry tomorrow.
  • Both diesel and gasoline crack spreads are holding steady today after drifting lower yesterday. Demand concerns are weighing on crack spreads despite ongoing tight supplies and low stocks.
    • US gasoline crack unchanged at 18.2$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 54.46$/bbl

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