Crude Retains Most Of Recent Gains As Supply Uncertainty At The Fore

Oil prices are moderately lower during APAC trading today after rallying strongly since Thursday on Fed cut optimism and geopolitical issues. WTI is down 0.3% to $77.17/bbl off the intraday low of $76.85, and Brent is 0.2% lower at $81.25 following a trough of $80.92. The USD index is flat.

• Focus has now shifted to the supply side with developments in Libya, tensions between Iran and Israel, a tanker adrift in the Red Sea after Houthi strikes and low US inventories. Industry data is out later today with official EIA numbers on Wednesday. A Reuters’ poll is forecasting another drop in US EIA stocks.
• Libya’s eastern government in Benghazi closed its oil fields and halted exports to protest the government in Tripoli’s control of the central bank, which manages the country’s oil revenues. If there is another civil war, Libyan oil output could fall to zero. It is currently 1mbd down from 1.18mbd in July. All but one of the major fields are in eastern Libya.
• Later there are US house price data and August consumer confidence and Richmond & Dallas activity indices. There is also the second estimate of Q2 German GDP.