Crude Reverses Direction Amid Risk of Supply Surplus in 2024

Crude futures and spreads reverse earlier gains as the market weighs the potential for a market surplus next year amid lack of confidence that OPEC+ voluntary cuts can offset the non-OPEC supply growth and potential slower demand growth from China.

• Crude had late last week and earlier seen gains up to a Brent front month high of 76.5$/bbl with support from robust US data, US SPR refilling and China’s Politburo recommending further fiscal stimulus at “an appropriate pace”.
• Saudi Aramco has notified at least three buyers in North Asia that the firm will supply full contractual volumes of crude oil in January 2024, while buyers have asked for less supply amid high January OSPs to Asia.
• Crude daily traded volumes were low on Friday with aggregate Brent futures at just 0.78k and WTI and 0.67k.
• Technicals show the bear threat remains intact with next support for the Brent Feb24 contract at 73.5$/bbl.and WTI Jan24 support at 68.8$/bbl.
  • Brent FEB 24 down -0.4% at 75.54$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24 down -0.5% at 70.85$/bbl
  • Brent FEB 24-MAR 24 down -0.04$/bbl at -0.2$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.09$/bbl at 1.03$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.04$/bbl at -0.25$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.07$/bbl at 1.2$/bbl