MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Bull Cycle Remains Intact
Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle in AUDUSD Remains Intact
- S&P E-Minis are in consolidation mode. A bullish theme is intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. Price has recently cleared 5600.75, Aug 1 high, signalling scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and price is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has recently pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4875.55. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
- GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and Tuesday’s fresh trend high reinforces the current positive trend set-up. The pair has recently traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142 and 1.3147, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and the 20-day EMA. The trend structure is unchanged, it remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has traded to a fresh cycle high today. This has resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme.
- Bullish trend conditions in Gold remain intact. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded sharply higher Monday. The climb is considered corrective, however, price has traded through the 50-day EMA.
- Bund futures traded lower Tuesday resulting in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 134.14. Short-term weakness appears to be corrective and this is allowing the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.34, the 50-day EMA. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this resulted in a breach of support at 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break lower highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.37, a Fibonacci projection.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1202 High Aug 26
- PRICE: 1.1168 @ 05:19 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 1.1098/1036 Low Aug 22 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0925 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3
EURUSD is unchanged and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. Bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s appreciation reinforces a bullish set-up. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1234 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and any corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support to watch is seen at 1.1036, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3266 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 1.3244 @ 05:40 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 1.3179 Low Aug 26
- SUP 2: 1.3077 Low Aug 22
- SUP 3: 1.3044/2984 High Jul 17 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2876 50-day EMA
GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and Tuesday’s fresh trend high reinforces the current positive trend set-up. The pair has recently traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142 and 1.3147, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. This strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support to watch is 1.2984, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8593 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 0.8545 High Aug 21 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.8468/8501 High Aug 27 / 20-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8425 @ 06:21 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 0.8423 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
- SUP 2: 0.8411 Low Jul 30
- SUP 3: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
EURGBP maintains a weaker short-term tone and the cross continues to trade lower. The extension reinforces the bearish significance of the recent break of the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the cross has cleared all the key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. This undermines the recent bullish theme and exposes 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8501, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 153.88 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 151.09 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.38 High Aug 15
- RES 1: 147.38 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 144.44 @ 06:45 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 143.45 Low Aug 26
- SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and the 20-day EMA. The trend structure is unchanged, it remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Key near-term resistance is at 147.38, the 20-day EMA. A break would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 165.17 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 164.08 200 DMA
- RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
- PRICE: 160.93 @ 06:57 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
EURJPY is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its recent highs. The outlook is bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The latest move higher has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance at 162.62, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 165.17. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces A Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6813 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6793 @ 08:01 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 0.6697/6650 Low Aug 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has traded to a fresh cycle high today. This has resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards 0.6871, the Dec 28 ‘23 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6697, the Aug 22 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3791 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 1.3646 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3519/3617 High August 26 / 23
- PRICE: 1.3457 @ 08:06 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD traded lower again Tuesday, marking an extension once again of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. The move down reinforces the current bearish condition. 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. This sets the scene for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3617, last Friday’s intraday high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
- RES 3: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
- RES 2: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6
- PRICE: 133.92 @ 05:00 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 133.66 Low Aug 27
- SUP 2: 133.34 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 132.08 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support
Bund futures traded lower Tuesday resulting in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 134.14. Short-term weakness appears to be corrective and this is allowing the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.34, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. First resistance is 135.17, the Aug 14 high.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 2: 119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6
- PRICE: 117.680 @ 05:14 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 117.550 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.292/116.700 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22
- SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11
Bobl futures traded to a fresh S/T low Tuesday, however price is again trading inside its range. The uptrend is intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, Jun 14 high. This break reinforces the bull theme. First resistance is 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Firm support is 117.292, the 50-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 106.225 @ 05:40 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 106.199 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.022/105.820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11
- SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support
Schatz futures are in consolidation mode. An uptrend remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. For now, the contract continues to trade above a firm support at 106.199, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 106.022. A resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 100.30 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 99.85 High Aug 22
- RES 1: 99.21 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 98.80 @ Close Aug 27
- SUP 1: 98.54 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 98.37 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 98.19 1.382 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 98.00 Round number support
Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this resulted in a breach of support at 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break lower highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.37, a Fibonacci projection. The trend condition remains up and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective hase. First key resistance to monitor is 99.85, Aug 22 high.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 1: 120.00/06 Psychological round number / High Aug 22
- PRICE: 118.88 @ Close Aug 27
- SUP 1: 118.34 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
- SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and a bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. The latest pullback has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A firmer support lies at 118.34, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 120.06, the Aug 22 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 4997.00 High Jul 17
- RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 4935.00 High Aug 23
- PRICE: 4921.00 @ 06:10 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 4846.63 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4742.00 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and price is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has recently pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4875.55. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low. Initial support lies at 4839.22, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
- RES 1: 5669.00 High Aug 26
- PRICE: 5645.25 @ 07:09 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 5504.86 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9
- SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8
- SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
S&P E-Minis are in consolidation mode. A bullish theme is intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. Price has recently cleared 5600.75, Aug 1 high, signalling scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5504.86, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (V4) Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low
- RES 1: $82.40 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
- PRICE: $79.50 @ 06:48 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: $79.24/75.05 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 2: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
- SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded sharply higher Monday, marking an extension of the rebound from the Aug 21 low. The contract breached the 50-day EMA and this undermines the recent bearish theme. Attention is on the key short-term resistance at $82.40, the Aug 12 high. A break would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would instead refocus attention on $75.05, the Aug 5 low and key support.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
- PRICE: $75.53 @ 07:03 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: $75.04/70.88 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
- SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded sharply higher Monday. The climb is considered corrective, however, price has traded through the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme. Attention is on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on $70.88 key support.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
- RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- PRICE: $2505.7 @ 07:05 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: $2472.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2424.1/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25
- SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
Bullish trend conditions in Gold remain intact. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2472.2, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.
SILVER TECHS: Watching Support The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- PRICE: $29.539 @ 08:11 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: $28.979/26.451- 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction - for now. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low (before rebounding) and this exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. A continuation higher would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
MNI (LONDON)