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Crude Slides On Ceasefire Headlines Despite Correction, Gold Surges On Soft USD

COMMODITIES
  • Crude markets have been volatile during US hours amid earlier headlines which sparked optimism for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. While earlier tweets from Al Jazeera suggesting as such were deleted, crude has continued to soften.
  • CBS News reports the US has a series of strikes planned in the coming days in response to the drone attack on a Jordanian outpost that killed three US service personnel and injured dozens more over the weekend.
  • OPEC+ has not made any recommendations to change the group’s output policy in the today’s JMMC meeting but noted high conformity with production quotas, the group said in a release.
  • WTI is -2.6% at $73.89, punching through suport at the 50-day EMA of $74.80 to open $70.62 (Jan 17 low).
  • Brent is -2.2% at $78.74, punching through support at the 50-day EMA of $79.45 to open $76.13 (Jan 17 low).
  • Gold is +0.8% at $2056.10, buoyed by the day’s slide in the USD after softer US data. Touching an earlier high of $2065.35 before pulling back on ceasefire confusion, it briefly cleared resistance at 2062.0 (Jan 12 high) to open $2088.5 (Dec 28 high).
  • TD Securities noted that macro traders in gold are historically underinvested for a cutting cycle. “In fact, our estimates of discretionary trader positioning points to notable short acquisitions over the last weeks, which could suggest that macro traders have been caught in a bear trap following the slew of hot data releases. This sets the stage for substantial outperformance in the yellow metal on the horizon, and our simulations of future price action suggest that imminent CTA buying activity could potentially kick off the start of a pain trade for macro traders.”
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