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OIL: Crude Slightly Lower On Lacklustre Risk Sentiment

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After rising around 1.5% on Friday, oil prices are moderately lower during APAC trading today given lacklustre commodity and equity markets. WTI is down 0.5% to $70.96/bbl, just above the intraday low. Brent is 0.3% lower at $74.24/bbl after a low of $74.18. They were already trending lower before the mixed China data. The USD index is down 0.1%.

  • China’s November IP growth was in line with expectations at 5.4% y/y but retail sales printed significantly lower at 3.0% y/y. Authorities have promised more stimulus to boost growth.
  • Oil has found support from news that there may be tighter or increased sanctions on some oil producers. The US and its allies may reduce the Russian oil price cap according to Treasury Secretary Yellen. The EU is also looking at further sanctions on Russian oil. In addition, President-elect Trump is expected to tighten sanctions on Iran, which could reduce global output by 1mbd.
  • The UAE has announced that it will reduce oil exports at the start of 2025 in an attempt to improve its quota compliance.
  • Later preliminary December PMIs for the US and Europe print. The ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel and de Guindos speak as well as the BoC’s Macklem. The key event for oil markets this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision. A 25bp cut is widely expected.
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After rising around 1.5% on Friday, oil prices are moderately lower during APAC trading today given lacklustre commodity and equity markets. WTI is down 0.5% to $70.96/bbl, just above the intraday low. Brent is 0.3% lower at $74.24/bbl after a low of $74.18. They were already trending lower before the mixed China data. The USD index is down 0.1%.

  • China’s November IP growth was in line with expectations at 5.4% y/y but retail sales printed significantly lower at 3.0% y/y. Authorities have promised more stimulus to boost growth.
  • Oil has found support from news that there may be tighter or increased sanctions on some oil producers. The US and its allies may reduce the Russian oil price cap according to Treasury Secretary Yellen. The EU is also looking at further sanctions on Russian oil. In addition, President-elect Trump is expected to tighten sanctions on Iran, which could reduce global output by 1mbd.
  • The UAE has announced that it will reduce oil exports at the start of 2025 in an attempt to improve its quota compliance.
  • Later preliminary December PMIs for the US and Europe print. The ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel and de Guindos speak as well as the BoC’s Macklem. The key event for oil markets this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision. A 25bp cut is widely expected.