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Warm and Windy Weather Weighs on TTF

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TTF extends the recent trend to the lowest since Nov. 6 with above normal temperatures and high wind forecast to limit demand. Slovakia plans talks from this week regarding gas supplies for 2025 with Russian gas transit via Ukraine are due to end in a couple of weeks.

  • European temperatures are expected above normal throughout the rest of December although could briefly dip slightly later this week. High wind is forecast in NW Europe this week and early next week.
  • European gas storage was 78.24% full on Dec. 14, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 81.3% after high withdrawal rates last week.
  • European LNG sendout remains strong with flows to NW Europe averaging 248mcm/d in the week to Dec. 14 although edged lower to 228mcm/d into the weekend.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are at 330.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions of 25.9mcm/d today amid unplanned outages at Kollsnes until Dec. 18 and Karsto until tomorrow.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are at 42.0mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara recovered slightly to 55.2mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was down at 358k on Dec. 13.
    • TTF JAN 25 down 2.6% at 40.13€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 2.8% at 40.13€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 2.5% at 39.58€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 1.9% at 37.87€/MWh
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TTF extends the recent trend to the lowest since Nov. 6 with above normal temperatures and high wind forecast to limit demand. Slovakia plans talks from this week regarding gas supplies for 2025 with Russian gas transit via Ukraine are due to end in a couple of weeks.

  • European temperatures are expected above normal throughout the rest of December although could briefly dip slightly later this week. High wind is forecast in NW Europe this week and early next week.
  • European gas storage was 78.24% full on Dec. 14, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 81.3% after high withdrawal rates last week.
  • European LNG sendout remains strong with flows to NW Europe averaging 248mcm/d in the week to Dec. 14 although edged lower to 228mcm/d into the weekend.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are at 330.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions of 25.9mcm/d today amid unplanned outages at Kollsnes until Dec. 18 and Karsto until tomorrow.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are at 42.0mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara recovered slightly to 55.2mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was down at 358k on Dec. 13.
    • TTF JAN 25 down 2.6% at 40.13€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 2.8% at 40.13€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 2.5% at 39.58€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 1.9% at 37.87€/MWh