Crude Stabilises After Growth Fears Hit The Energy Source Hard

Oil prices are off their intraday lows and are currently up on the day, which if sustained would be the first rise since last Friday. On Wednesday crude plummeted to lows not seen since late December 2021 on concerns of a global recession. WTI is up 0.8% today and is trading just around $68.15/bbl and Brent is 0.9% higher to around $74.35.

• While the sharp move lower in crude in recent days was driven by banking troubles, bullish positioning in the lead up to the collapse of SVB has exacerbated the move. Despite the CS announcement that it was strengthening its liquidity position, volatility in the oil market is likely to persist and banking sector developments remain the focus.
• The IEA reported on Wednesday that it expects the oil market to remain in surplus over H1 2023, as Russian output has proved resilient. Demand in France is being reduced by striking refinery workers and US official EIA data showed another US crude stock build while products were run down. There is still optimism regarding China’s demand outlook as refining has picked up strongly in 2023.
• The ECB meets later and is expected to hike rates by 50bp but the OIS market currently has about 29bp priced in. In the US, there is only second-tier data including February housing starts/permits, trade prices, jobless claims and the Philly Fed index.