Crude Stable After Weekly Decline Ahead of Payrolls

Crude markets are holding steady today after falling yesterday to extend the weekly decline from around 92.5$/bbl back to 84.3$/bbl. The decline has been driven by economic concerns and possible future interest rate rises and assisted by a stronger USD ahead of the updated US payrolls data due later today.

• Brent DEC 23 up 0.2% at 84.21$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 0.3% at 82.54$/bbl
• Gasoil OCT 23 down -1.9% at 852.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -3.17$/bbl
• OPEC+ commitment to output cuts until year end remains supportive but weak US gasoline demand and an easing of Russia’s fuel export ban are adding to the downward pressure.
• Saudi as expected yesterday hiked its official selling prices to Asia for a fifth straight month.
• Russian has lifted the ban on diesel pipeline exports but imposed prohibitive fuel duty for gray exporters and companies must supply no less than 50% of diesel to local market according to Interfax.
  • Brent DEC 23-JAN 24 down -0.04$/bbl at 1.39$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.15$/bbl at 6.8$/bbl
• The downside move in crude time spreads have been more muted with strong curve backwardation still reflecting the tight market supplies in Q4. The Dec23-Dec24 spread is however down at the lowest since 7 Sep and the prompt spread has today fallen to a new low for the week.
• Diesel markets are again slightly lower with some easing of the Russian export ban while the decline in gasoline cracks has stalled after seeing a steady fall since 12 Sep with high US pump prices weighing on demand.
  • US 321 crack down -0.1$/bbl at 19.16$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 9.89$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 37.7$/bbl