Crude Steady After Late Recovery Yesterday

Crude is trading in a narrow range just below the previous close after recovering yesterday following a dip down to nearly 83.3$/bbl on the back on China demand concerns. Crude regained ground on increasing supply risks to Russian crude shipments from rising tensions in the Black Sea.

• Brent OCT 23 down -0.1% at 86.07$/bbl
• WTI SEP 23 down -0.1% at 82.81$/bbl
• Gasoil AUG 23 up 2.5% at 910.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -3.84$/bbl
• A weaker move in the US dollar added to the upside crude pressure ahead of the latest US CPI data due on Thursday as the market looks for signs of future US Fed monetary tightening plans.
• US production is expected to rise faster than previously expected according to the latest EIA forecast to partly counter the tighter market driven by OPEC+ production cuts.
  • Brent OCT 23-NOV 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.51$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 4.79$/bbl
• Prompt time spreads followed the rally with Brent Oct-Nov up above the highs from last week to the highest since April. Moves in the longer dated spreads were more muted but still regained some of the losses from the start of the week.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 36.31$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 47.05$/bbl
• Crack spreads also regained ground with tight supplies and low inventories supporting diesel markets. Near term Gasoil backwardation has softened at the start of August suggesting an easing of the near-term tight supplies as refinery outages have reduced. The EIA US petroleum inventory data due out later today is not expected to show much of a boost to stocks.