Crude Steady As Geopolitics Create Significant Uncertainty

Oil prices are off their intraday highs to be little changed during the APAC session as OPEC+ members don’t believe it is necessary to change quotas. WTI rose to $82.30/bbl but is now back below $82 at $81.92. Brent is around $86.69 after rising to $87.06 earlier. The USD index is off its lows to also be flat on the day.

• The US waiver of sanctions on Venezuelan oil & gas expires on April 18 and there are growing concerns that it won’t be renewed as Venezuela has failed to meet the condition of free & fair elections. President Maduro has disqualified his main rival from running in July’s vote. India has stopped buying Venezuelan oil because of this scenario, while refusing to take oil on Russian state-owned tankers also because of sanctions.
• With the IEA revising its forecasts to show a small deficit in the oil market and conflicts impacting energy security, US inventory data out later today is being monitored closely. Recent weeks have seen drawdowns in crude stocks.
• Bullish technicals are supportive of oil prices with Brent’s 50-day moving average above the 200-day.
• Attention is on Russia with Ukrainian drone attacks continuing and a tragic terrorist attack in Moscow. Rosneft’s Kuibyshev refinery in Samara, southern Russia, was attacked on Saturday and now half its capacity is offline.
• Later US February durable orders, January CoreLogic house prices, March consumer confidence and Richmond Fed indices print. ECB’s Lane speaks.