Crude Steady As Market Considers OPEC+ Risks

Crude is holding steady today after pulling back yesterday following the suggestion from Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak that OPEC+ are unlikely to adjust targets at the early June meeting.

• Brent JUL 23 up 0% at 76.29$/bbl
• WTI JUL 23 up 0.2% at 71.98$/bbl
• Gasoil JUN 23 up 0.2% at 680.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.31$/bbl
• Crude had been supported earlier in the week by risks of future cuts to OPEC+ production at the 3-4 June meeting after a warning to oil speculators from the Saudi Energy Minister.
• Downward pressure from US economic and recession concerns due to persistent inflation have eased slightly with tentative signs that negotiators are closer to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling.
  • Brent JUL 23-AUG 23 down -0.04$/bbl at 0.04$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 3.27$/bbl
• Crude remains in narrow backwardation with prompt spreads softening and WTI back in contango and Brent holding just positive. Longer dated spreads are still supported by the potential for a tighter market in the second half of this year driven by lower OPEC supplies, a demand recovery in China and low US petroleum inventory levels.
• Gasoline cracks are holding onto gains seen earlier this month to the highest since Jul 2022 with support from low inventory levels ahead of the upcoming summer driving season. EIA implied demand data this week showed a boost ahead of the holiday weekend. Diesel crack spreads remain low with weak demand concerns and recent increasing refinery runs rates.
  • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 35.35$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.1$/bbl at 26.03$/bbl