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Crude Steady in Thin Trading Amid OPEC Uncertainty

OIL

Crude holds steady after trading between about 80.2$/bbl and 81.8$/bbl since yesterday amid thin trading due to the US holiday driven by OPEC production uncertainty, building US crude stocks and easing Middle East tensions.

    • Brent JAN 24 up 0% at 81.43$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 24 down -0.9% at 76.44$/bbl
    • Gasoil DEC 23 up 0.1% at 826.5$/mt
    • WTI-Brent down -0.13$/bbl at -4.98$/bbl
  • A delay to the OPEC+ meeting has added to market uncertainty this week with Nigeria and Angola pushing for higher production quotas, disrupting normal OPEC+ meeting proceedings. African oil producers were moving closer to a compromise on 2024 production levels according to Reuters sources late yesterday.
  • Despite the delay, the market expectation is still that Saudi are likely to extend voluntary cuts into next year driven by global demand growth concern and strong non-OPEC and sanctioned supply.
    • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.07$/bbl at 0.1$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.05$/bbl at 1.91$/bbl
  • Near term crude time spreads remain weak with the Brent prompt in narrow backwardation and WTI in contango suggesting a looser near term balance while the near term options yesterday fell to the most bearish since March due to strengthening put volatility.
  • Diesel crack spreads have seen some support this month after the declines seen late summer, while Europe gears up for its first winter without Russian diesel, leaving it sensitive to supply shocks amid low inventory levels.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 15.22$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 40.79$/bbl
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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