Crude Ticks Higher on Shipping Risks and Unchanged OPEC Demand Forecast

Crude futures and spreads tick higher ahead of the EIA inventory data with support from shipping risks and with OPEC demand growth forecast unchanged from last month to pause the bearish trend driven by supply surplus expectations.

• The EIA weekly petroleum inventory data is due for release this afternoon at 10:30 ET (15:30GMT). EIA data is expected to show a crude draw while gasoline stocks are expected to build and distillates show a small draw as refinery utilisation rises again according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Front month Brent has recovered from a low of 72.29$/bbl earlier today but is still well below levels seen at the start of this week. The prompt time spreads remain weak with Brent having fallen into contango at the start of December.
• Reports of another Houthi rebel attack on a tanker near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday have added to the attack in the Red Sea earlier this week.
• OPEC left oil demand growth expectations unchanged with growth of 2.2mbpd in 2024 driven mainly by China while raising its 2023 global economic growth forecast in its latest monthly report. The report flagged “exaggerated” concerns about oil demand growth following the recent market sell-off.
• Technicals show the next support for the Brent Feb24 contract is at Jun 23 low of 71.45$/bbl with resistance up at 76.66$/bbl. WTI Jan24 support is at 67.28$/bbl and resistance at 71.96$/bbl.
  • Brent FEB 24 up 0.7% at 73.76$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24 up 0.8% at 69.13$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.38$/bbl
  • Brent FEB 24-MAR 24 down -0.02$/bbl at -0.3$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.67$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.01$/bbl at -0.25$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.78$/bbl