Crude Unchanged After EIA Crude Stock Build as Refinery Runs Stay Low

Crude markets are relatively unchanged after an initial surge higher in reaction to the latest EIA US weekly petroleum data. Crude stocks built more than expected while products drew driven by higher gasoline and distillates demand. Gasoline cracks have surged higher but diesel cracks are given up some of the earlier gains.

• Crude inventories rose more than expected on the week with production back up to record highs of 13.3mb/d and with imports recovering after the dip lower in the last couple of weeks. Exports edged slightly lower on the week and refinery utilization once again fell as plants struggled to restart operations from January disruption. Gulf Coast rates fell to 77.1% and the lowest seasonal level in data going back to 2010. Cushing stocks remain below normal after a small drop this week. The data again showed a large adjustment figure despite the change in methodology last year.
• Gasoline production fell amid the lower refinery runs to result in a total US drop in stocks although PADD 2 gasoline stocks rose to the highest since 2019. The Whiting output was only in the second half of the week so may be reflected more next week. Gasoline implied demand rose on the week but the four week average stays just below the previous five year average.
• Distillates stock as expected fell with a small dip in production and increase in implied demand. Four week average implied demand is still below the previous five year range with the increase this week in line with the seasonal trend.
  • Brent APR 24 up 0.2% at 78.78$/bbl
  • WTI MAR 24 up 0.2% at 73.49$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent down -0.04$/bbl at -5.24$/bbl
  • WTI MAR 24-APR 24 up 0.02$/bbl at -0.04$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.11$/bbl at 2.19$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack up 1.1$/bbl at 20.8$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 42.72$/bbl