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JAPAN DATA: Current A/C Aided By Trade Surplus, Local Investors Sell EU Debt

JAPAN DATA
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Japan's Dec current account in seasonally adjusted terms, printed ¥2731.6bn, close to market expectations and versus ¥3033.4bn prior. The trade balance, on a BoP basis was ¥62.3bn, below forecasts of ¥227.7bn (per the BBG consensus). In seasonally adjusted terms the trade balance was back in surplus though (¥214.1bn). This was the first such surplus since 2021. 

  • The current account balance sits just off cycle highs in Dec, which is plotted below against the trade balance (which in millions of yen, not billions).
  • Other data showed a bias to sell offshore debt in December, particularly in terms of the EU. There was a record amount of Italian debt sold, while outflows were also noted from Germany and France. Fiscal concerns a likely driver of such outflows. 

Fig 1: Japan Current Account & Trade Balance Trends (Yen) 

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Japan's Dec current account in seasonally adjusted terms, printed ¥2731.6bn, close to market expectations and versus ¥3033.4bn prior. The trade balance, on a BoP basis was ¥62.3bn, below forecasts of ¥227.7bn (per the BBG consensus). In seasonally adjusted terms the trade balance was back in surplus though (¥214.1bn). This was the first such surplus since 2021. 

  • The current account balance sits just off cycle highs in Dec, which is plotted below against the trade balance (which in millions of yen, not billions).
  • Other data showed a bias to sell offshore debt in December, particularly in terms of the EU. There was a record amount of Italian debt sold, while outflows were also noted from Germany and France. Fiscal concerns a likely driver of such outflows. 

Fig 1: Japan Current Account & Trade Balance Trends (Yen) 

Keep reading...Show less