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Curve Bear Flattens On Wednesday

US TSYS

TYM3 deals at 114-20, +0-01+, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished flat to 7bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear flattened.
  • Tsys were pressured yesterday looking through the improved risk appetite, S&P500 was ~1.2% firmer, as rate cut expectations for 2023 softened.
  • FOMC dated OIS now price ~60bps of cuts in 2023, there were ~100bps priced last week.
  • There was optimism over a deal on the US debt ceiling as House Leader McCarthy noted a deal by Sunday was doable.
  • Tsys firmed off session lows as the latest 20-Year supply stopped through; strong indirect take up was observed.
  • The Australian Apr Labour Market Report headlines the Asia-Pac session. Further out we have Initial Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook. Fedspeak from Gov. Jefferson, VC Barr and Dallas Fed President Logan is on the wires. The latest 10 Year TIPS supply will cross.

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