Curve Bull Steepened On Tuesday

TYM3 deals at 116-05+, -0-02+, in line with late NY levels.

• Cash tsys finished 3-14bps richer across the major benchmarks on Tuesday, the curve bull steepened.
• Tsys firmed after February JOLTS Job Opening data was softer than expected and the prior month was also revised lower. Vacancies at US employers dropped to the lowest level since May 2021.
• Earlier in the session tsys ticked lower, there was no obvious headline driver, with participants perhaps still having one eye on inflationary pressures of higher oil prices.
• FOMC dated OIS now price a ~12bp hike for the May meeting with the terminal rate at 4.93%, there are ~75bps of cuts priced for 2023.
• TYM3 broke resistance at 116-06+, Mar 27 high, the next upside target is 117-01+ the high from 24 March and the bull trigger. Support comes in at 115-02+ yesterday's low.
• The RBNZ monetary policy decision headlines in Asia-Pac today, the bank is expected to raise the OCR 25bps to 5.00%. Further out there is a slew of US data including ADP Employment, Trade Balance, Services PMI and ISM Services survey. Fedspeak from St Louis Fed President Bullard will cross.