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Free AccessCurve Twist Flattens On Monday
TYH2 ticks lower at the re-open, moving away from Monday’s late high, but remains comfortably within the confines of yesterday’s range. That leaves the contract +0-02+ at 128-07.
- Twist flattening was at the fore on Monday, with the front end cheapening on Fed rate hike expectations
- Richmond Fed President Barkin (’24 voter) pointed to the potential for a March rate hike in a WSJ interview. Elsewhere, the sell side continued to adjust Fed exp. Most notably, Goldman Sachs now look for 4x rate hikes in ’22 vs. 3x previously in addition to a swifter start when it comes to the balance sheet normalisation process.
- Longer dated yields led the pullback from intraday cheaps as we moved through NY trade (equities also corrected from lows), with benchmarks across the Tsy curve going out 3bp cheaper to 3bp richer, pivoting around the 7- to 10-Year zone. The wings of the curve represented the extremes in moves.
- Fed Chair Powell’s latest testimony will draw most of the event interest on Tuesday. The pre-release of the initial address saw Powell note that he stands ready to prevent elevated inflation from becoming entrenched. "The economy is expanding at its fastest pace in many years, and the labour market is strong," he added. Fedspeak from George and Mester will supplement Powell during NY hours. 3-Year Tsy supply is also due on Tuesday. Meanwhile, NFIB small biz optimism headlines a thin NY economic data docket.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.