Curve Twist Steepens, TY In Top Half Of Session Range

A relatively volatile start for EGBs post-BoJ & German regional, Spanish & French CPI releases leaves TYU3 a little above the middle of its 0-17 range, last +0-04+ with ~516K lots of the contract changing hands thus far, comfortably above the recent average for this time of day. Cash trade sees 4bp of richening to 2bp of cheapening as the curve twist steepens, pivoting around 10s.

• A quick reminder that the Nikkei sources piece flagging the potential for a BoJ policy move factored into late NY price action on Thursday, which skews the cross-market optics vs. EGBs when looking at net change on the day.
• The post-FOMC blackout is now lifted, but we don’t see much in the way of Fedspeak on the slate.
• FOMC-dated OIS indicate a terminal rate of just under 5.42% come November, before ~63bp of cuts show through June 24.
• NY hours will see the release of PCE data, the Q2 ECI print, final UoM sentiment readings and Kansas City Fed services survey.