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Curves Bull Flatten, Inflation Expectations Cool

US TSYS

Tsys futures near session highs after the bell, 30YY currently 3.6782% (-.0758), yield curves unwinding Tue's steepening (2s10s -4.602 at -68.070).

  • Bonds bid with EGBs, underscored by MNI exclusive story: ECB Doves Eye Smaller Hikes As Inflation Falls: "more dovish officials are prepared to seize on an expected slide in headline inflation from the spring to argue for a slowdown in the pace of tightening, Eurosystem officials told MNI."
  • Limited economic data on day (MTG REFIS +5% SA; PURCH INDEX -1%). Focus on Thu's CPI read: MoM (0.1%, -0.1%); YoY (7.1%, 6.5%). Post data Fed speak Thu w/ StL Fed Bullard, on eco/mon-pol, Q&A at 1130ET, Richmond Fed Barkin at 1240ET.
  • Carry-over corporate debt issuance and pre-auction short selling ahead $32B 10Y note auction re-open helping keep prices contained. Tsy futures bounce higher after $32B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CFV8) stops through w/ 3.575% high yield vs. 3.580% WI; 2.53x bid-to-cover vs. 2.31x prior.
  • Indirect take-up 67.02% vs. 59.45% prior; direct bidder take-up 17.92% from 18.70% prio, primary dealer take-up 15.06% vs. 21.86%.

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