MNI BRIEF: Fed's Powell Says Neutral Rate Has Likely Risen

BOC SAYS FIRMS SEE SLOWER PRICE INCREASES AND WAGE GAINS

MNI BRIEF: China Q2 GDP Impacted By Bad Weather - NBS

MNI China Press Digest July 15: Consumption, Exports, FDI

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY100 Bln Via 1Y MLF; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY129 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Tuesday

King's Speech Due Wednesday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Curves Twist Steeper, Near Highs After Dovish Leaning Powell Interview

US TSYS
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
  • Treasuries look to finish near session lows after gapping mildly higher at the start of Fed Chairman Powell's cordial interview with David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of DC earlier.
  • While expressly stating he would not comment on markets, Treasury futures pare losses as Chairman Powell discusses the labor market where the Fed could react to an unexpected labor market weakening.
  • Fed Chair Powell at a Q&A with the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. strikes a predictably dovish-leaning message in light of recent data, repeating previous comments that the labor market is back to roughly where it was pre-pandemic; for inflation, in Q2 we had "3 better readings" following June's reports.
  • Sep'24 10Y futures extending top end of the session range to 111-06.5 (+0.5) but have scaled back to pre-interview levels at 110-30.5 (-7.5). Curves folding broadly steeper: 2s10s +4.052 at -23.017, 5s30s +3.158 at 32.372.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end have gained vs. this morning's levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -27.5bp (-24.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -44.1bp (-41.6bp), Dec'24 -65.8bp (-63.3bp).
  • Focus turns to Tuesday's Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, upcoming earnings from Bank of America, Charles Schwab, State Street and Morgan Stanley.
196 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Treasuries look to finish near session lows after gapping mildly higher at the start of Fed Chairman Powell's cordial interview with David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of DC earlier.
  • While expressly stating he would not comment on markets, Treasury futures pare losses as Chairman Powell discusses the labor market where the Fed could react to an unexpected labor market weakening.
  • Fed Chair Powell at a Q&A with the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. strikes a predictably dovish-leaning message in light of recent data, repeating previous comments that the labor market is back to roughly where it was pre-pandemic; for inflation, in Q2 we had "3 better readings" following June's reports.
  • Sep'24 10Y futures extending top end of the session range to 111-06.5 (+0.5) but have scaled back to pre-interview levels at 110-30.5 (-7.5). Curves folding broadly steeper: 2s10s +4.052 at -23.017, 5s30s +3.158 at 32.372.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end have gained vs. this morning's levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -27.5bp (-24.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -44.1bp (-41.6bp), Dec'24 -65.8bp (-63.3bp).
  • Focus turns to Tuesday's Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, upcoming earnings from Bank of America, Charles Schwab, State Street and Morgan Stanley.