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Customs Trade Deficit Narrows But Export Growth Slows

THAILAND

Thailand’s February customs trade deficit narrowed close to expectations at $554mn after a deficit of $2758mn. Export growth slowed to 3.6% y/y from 10% y/y but continued to outpace imports at 3.2% up from 2.6%. The Commerce Ministry expects exports to slow further in Q1 with the quarter averaging 1-2% y/y growth as March base effects are unfavourable. USDTHB rose slightly on the data and is currently around 36.39 to be little changed on the day.

  • Increased global demand, especially for food, is expected to support Thai exports in 2024. They will be an important support for the economy, which has continued to disappoint.
  • Thai rice export volumes were strong rising 33.4% y/y to 800.2k tonnes and prices were 15% y/y higher. Rice prices have risen strongly since mid-2023 after weather-affected harvests and India banned the export of non-basmati varieties (see MNI Rice Prices Had Little Impact On Core Inflation But Now Peaking).
  • A pickup in shipments of food and some electronics products also supported export growth.
  • Thailand saw strong export growth to the US, its largest destination, in January but while still positive it was soft to China, Japan and the EU.
Thailand customs trade y/y% 3-month ma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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