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Cut Expectations Ramp Higher As Regional Bank Pressures Add To Post-ADP, ECI Moves

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates see significant downward momentum continue with regional banks under pressure after the open courtesy of NY Community Bancorp woes (on much higher credit provisions) before the MNI Chicago PMI also missing.
  • Now up to 16.5bp of cumulative cuts for March, 65bp for June and 146bp for Dec (11bps of additional cuts for 2024 since ADP first missed).
  • It adds to softer than expected ADP and ECI prints, plus spillover from the Treasury's QRA.

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