CWE Power – Germany, France Fall on Gas, EU ETS

German and French August power is trading in red on Monday morning as losses in European emissions allowances are weighing on the contracts, with slight falls in European gas extending downside movement.

• France Base Power AUG 24 down 2.7% at 44.2 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 2.5% at 69.02 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 1.1% at 68.41 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1% at 31.415 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month is relatively unchanged so far today amid stable fundamentals and the gradual restocking of gas storage but an ongoing lack of clarity on the return of Freeport LNG with feedgas flows still estimated near zero according to Bloomberg.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is edging lower today, reversing the previous session's gains to fall the lowest since 11 July. The next EU EUA auction will clear today 11:00 am CET.
• In Germany, combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 1.21GW to 17.08GW during base load on 16-22 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 22.53GW-28.47GW during peak load over the same period, according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a peak of 64.4GW on Tuesday and 64.8GW on Wednesday according to Entso-E. This is up from 63.98GW forecast for today.
• In France, nuclear availability was at 68% of capacity as of Monday morning, unchanged from 12 July, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• The 1.31GW Nogent 1 reactor will be offline over 14-15 July, with the 890MW Dampierre 4 disconnected on 12 July until 16 January 2025, latest remit data show, cited by Bloomberg.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a peak of 51.6GW on Tuesday and 52.14GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggests a 1.1-1.5C upward revision in temperatures over 15-17 July. Mean temperatures are forecast to remain above the norm of around 20C throughout the forecasts. Max temperatures are anticipated to reach as high as 31C on 23 July – likely supporting cooling demand.