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CZK: CEE Pair Advances Amid Comparative Central Bank Musings


PLN/CZK gains for a fourth consecutive day as participants reassess their views on the outlooks for monetary policy decisions from the local central banks. The pair has added 273 pips to last change hands at 5.3954 and bulls set their sights on Jul 12 high of 5.4094. A break above that level would bring into play the 38.2% retracement of the 2020 - 2023 sell-off at 5.4339.

  • Poland's FRA curve has adjusted higher today, building on yesterday's uptick, amid a correction of recent aggressive addition of dovish NBP bets. Santander and Bank Millennium wrote this morning that this adjustment was expected, with the implied magnitude of NBP monetary easing looking excessive.
  • Czech FRAs have also ticked higher, but anecdotal evidence pointed to doubts surrounding the CNB's earlier hawkish messaging. CSOB wrote today that disinflationary data and recent comments from central bank officials may have led to an adjustment in CNB expectations.

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