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CZK Gains Strength Following June CPI Print

CZECHIA
  • Earlier this week, economic data showed that CPI inflation rose slightly higher than expected in June, +2.8% YoY (vs. 2.7% exp.) and down from 2.9% from the previous month.
  • Even though inflation is still standing below the 3% CNB upper tolerance band, inflationary pressures could continue to intensify in the second half of this year amid consumer demand combined with accelerating wage growth.
  • Next CNB meeting will take place on August 5, and policymaker are very likely to raise the benchmark rate by another 25bps to 0.75%.
  • USDCZK keeps consolidating lower this morning, gradually approaching its 100DMA support at 21.49; next level to watch on the downside stands at 21.31. On the topside, first resistance stands at 21.72 (200DMA), followed by 21.92.
  • Czech 10Y yield ticked higher yesterday and currently trades between its 50DMA (1.70%) and 100DMA (1.77%). Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 1.80%; on the downside, key ST support stands at 1.60%.
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