Daly Sounds Like A 2-Hiker, Joins Others In Not Committing To July Hike

San Francisco Fed Pres Daly could be one of the 9 FOMC members in the two-hike camp for 2023, telling Reuters that 50bp of further tightening this year is "a very reasonable projection at this point...but no decision, for me, has been made." Echoing Chair Powell's comments the past two weeks, Daly said "it is, in my judgment, prudent policy... to slow the pace of policy as you near the destination."

• Another common theme among FOMC members is that we haven't heard any give any predisposition toward a July hike - Daly: "I want to maintain optionality, because I think that's prudent."
• There were just 2 FOMC members who saw no further hikes in the March Dot Plot: per MNI's interview with him, one is Atlanta's Bostic; we had assumed Daly was a prime candidate to be the second, but now the main candidates are Chicago's Goolsbee, Philadelphia's Harker, or Boston's Collins - the last two of whom we haven't heard from since the June projections (Goolsbee said Wednesday that June's decision to hold was a "close call".)
• Interestingly Daly echoed concerns expressed recently by hawks Bowman and Waller that while several points of inflation are headed in the right direction, there is a worry that the housing market has bottomed and that rents may be reaccelerating. That would be a major blow to the FOMC's thesis that both core goods and shelter services inflation are set to contribute heavily to disinflation the rest of the year (with core services ex-housing being the stubborn outlier).