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Danske: Slowly Taking The Foot Off The Gas

FED

Danske saw the Fed as more hawkish than anticipated, with the June meeting most likely marking the first step of the Fed "taking the foot off the gas".

  • The main reason is not that actual inflation has moved higher (the Fed says it's largely transitory), and the Fed remains calm on inflation due to still-well anchored expectations.
  • Rather, it's due to labor market developments, with several indicators quite strong and Powell noting "we are on path to a very strong labour market recovery" highlighting that temporary factors are keeping job growth low.
  • Future action: Danske now expects the Fed to start tapering in 4Q 2021 (vs Jan 2022 prior); first hike in 2H 2022 (vs 1Q 2023 prior).
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