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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
China April activity data was weaker than expected, particularly in the industrial space. IP y/y printed at 5.6%, versus 10.9% expected and 3.9% prior. Fixed asset investment (FAI) also showed a decent downside miss at 4.7% ytd y/y/ versus 5.7% expected.
- The drag from property investment remained, -6.2% ytd y/y, -5.7% expected. Property sales were better at 11.8% ytd y/y, versus 7.1% prior. Other details showed new construction starts at -21.2% ytd y/y, while funds raised by developers were -6.4% y/y.
- The retail segment performed better, +18.4% y/y for retail sales, but this was still below expectations of +21.9%. This has been the trend during this recovery in terms of retail spending outperforming the industrial side.
- The jobless rate ticked down to 5.2%, versus 5.3% expected, although the China stats bureau noted that youth unemployment rose to the highest on record at 20.4%.
- Overall, the data suggests we will see further downside in indicators like the Citi China EASI (note the latest reading on the chart doesn't incorporate today's data outcomes). The index is moving down from elevated levels, see the chart below. The other line on the chart is China 2023 consensus GDP growth expectations (taken from Bloomberg).
- In recent months the two series have had a solid relationship, but further downside surprises in data outcomes may temper the upward trajectory to growth expectations seen this year.
Fig 1: Citi China EASI Versus 2023 China GDP Growth Expectations
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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