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Two ways of looking at private sector average weekly earnings (2/2)

UK DATA
  • Another way to look at the data is to analyse the momentum (3m/3m annualised). We suspect that is what the BOE may have been at least partly doing as it formulated its forecast. Momentum picked up to 6.87% in April (as the NLW was increased) and then picked up further to 7.30% in May. If we assume there are no revisions to prior data and impute the BOE’s single month forecast (which would be for Y/Y growth of 4.67%) then we would see momentum fall back to 6.88% - almost identical to the level seen in April.
  • Of course, looking at survey data there has been a weakening in pay growth metrics, such as in the BOE’s DMP (Decision Maker Panel) data – which was namechecked in the most recent MPC Minutes. So a deceleration for private regular AWE to 5.2%Y/Y in Q2 seems a reasonable estimate to us. A high 5.1%Y/Y is also a possibility (as forecast by the BOE) but anything lower than that would be a surprise (barring decent revisions).
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