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DB Near Consensus For Core CPI, 3-Mth Trends Still Accelerate

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Deutsche Bank look for core CPI at 0.27% M/M in January after 0.28%, as “we wonder whether the sharp inflation falls of the last few quarters have been a double bluff”.
  • Headline CPI seen at 0.15% M/M, owing to seasonally adjusted gas prices -2.5% M/M, leaving headline at 2.9% Y/Y (-0.4pps), whilst core CPI seen at 3.7% Y/Y (-0.2pps).
  • “Shorter-term trends for core inflation would firm a little off of base effects, with the three-month annualized rate rising by two-tenths to 3.5% while the six-month annualized rate would tick up a tenth to 3.3%.”
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