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Both Deutsche Bank and Rabobank are also calling for the Fed to accelerate taper after relatively hawkish Fedspeak and yesterday's minutes.
- Deutsche Bank expect the "Fed to double the tapering pace in December, bringing the drawdown to $20bn and $10bn per month for Treasuries and MBS, respectively. That would bring tapering to an end in March".
- They see this as potentially paving the way for hikes in Q2, bringing forward lift-off to June from July.
- Rabobank note that "we are likely to see an acceleration of the pace of tapering to allow the Fed to hike earlier next year if this turns out to be necessary".
- They see it as the logical step to take as it gives optionality but with no pre-commitment to early rate hikes.
- Turning to the dot plot, they expect "support for at least 1 rate hike in 2022 is likely to be overwhelming in December" after the median was split between 0 and 1 hike in Sep.