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Dec CPI Downside Surprise Masks Higher Core

SWITZERLAND DATA
MNI (London)

SWITZERLAND DEC CPI -0.2% M/M (FCST -0.1%); NOV 0.0% M/M

SWITZERLAND DEC CPI +2.8% Y/Y (FCST +3.0%); NOV +3.0% Y/Y

  • Swiss CPI came in softer than expected in December, as prices deflated by -0.2% m/m and ticked down by 0.2pp to +2.8% y/y against expectations of headline inflation holding steady at +3.0% y/y for a third consecutive month.
  • Prices fell on the month across heating oil and fuel, along with some food and medicine costs. Service prices continued to accelerate.
  • This adds to promising news for the SNB as Switzerland edges further away from the 29-year high of +3.5% y/y in August.
  • However, core inflation ticked up another 0.1pp to +2.0%, with core prices up +0.1% m/m. As such, the SNB is likely to continue it's hiking cycle into 2023. After slowing to a 50bp hike in December, taking the Policy Rate to 1.00%, with further rate hikes likely required to ensure price stability.

Source: Statistics Switzerland

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