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Dec CPI Edges Lower than Expected

SOUTH AFRICA
MNI (London)

SOUTH AFRICA DEC CPI +0.4% M/M; NOV +0.3% M/M

SOUTH AFRICA DEC CPI +7.2% Y/Y (FCST +7.3%); NOV +7.4% Y/Y

SOUTH AFRICA DEC CORE CPI +4.9% Y/Y (FCST +5.1%); NOV +5.0% Y/Y

  • South African annualised CPI edged down in December, cooling by 0.2pp (vs 1pp expected) to +7.2% y/y. Prices continued to increase on the month, accelerating by +0.4% m/m after +0.3% m/m in November.
  • Headline CPI has remained elevated in the +7.2% to +7.8% range for seven consecutive months now.
  • Positive developments were made in December, with annualised goods inflation easing (+10.1% y/y after 10.4%) as well as services (+4.3% y/y after +4.5% in Nov).
  • This fed into the 0.1pp moderation in core CPI to +4.9% y/y, against expectations of a 0.1pp uptick.
  • The December data adds to the likelihood of the SARB opting for a smaller 25bp hike at their Jan 26 meeting as the bank tightens beyond its assumed neutral rate in order to tame sticky inflation.

Source: Statistics South Africa

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