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PHILIPPINES: Dec Inflation Firms, But Close To Mid Point Of BSP Target Band

PHILIPPINES
EM BulletPhilippinesBulletAPACEmerging Market News

Philippines Dec inflation was stronger than forecast. We rose 0.6%m/m, versus a consensus of 0.3% (Nov was 0.4%). In y/y terms we were up 2.9%, against a 2.6% forecast and 2.5% prior. Core CPI rose 2.8%y/y, versus 2.5% prior. 

  • The detail showed solid rises in for food and transport prices in m/m terms. In y/y terms, transport prices were back in positive territory after being negative. Other categories saw similar y/y outcomes to Nov.
  • This still leaves Philippines CPI within the central bank's 2-4% target band. Earlier remarks from the central bank and the government stated they would be vigilant to upside inflation risks in 2025. Commodity prices and adverse weather conditions are watch points, while the BSP will continue its data dependent approach.
  • The next BSP meeting will be held on Feb 20. We get another inflation update before then. Note the central bank will meet 6 times this year, instead of seven. 
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Philippines Dec inflation was stronger than forecast. We rose 0.6%m/m, versus a consensus of 0.3% (Nov was 0.4%). In y/y terms we were up 2.9%, against a 2.6% forecast and 2.5% prior. Core CPI rose 2.8%y/y, versus 2.5% prior. 

  • The detail showed solid rises in for food and transport prices in m/m terms. In y/y terms, transport prices were back in positive territory after being negative. Other categories saw similar y/y outcomes to Nov.
  • This still leaves Philippines CPI within the central bank's 2-4% target band. Earlier remarks from the central bank and the government stated they would be vigilant to upside inflation risks in 2025. Commodity prices and adverse weather conditions are watch points, while the BSP will continue its data dependent approach.
  • The next BSP meeting will be held on Feb 20. We get another inflation update before then. Note the central bank will meet 6 times this year, instead of seven.