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Dec Minutes Preview (2/3): Inflation Risks, With An Eye On Fri Payrolls

FED

Look for more color on the discussion around the inflation outlook, and in particular Powell's comment "overwhelmingly FOMC participants believe that inflation risks are to the upside so I can't tell you confidently that we won't move up our estimate of the peak rate again at the next SEP."

  • Ahead of Friday's payrolls - which is the only employment report between the Dec FOMC and the Feb 1 decision - discussion re labor market tightness will be in focus, with Powell emphasizing a cooler jobs market being required to reduce services inflation.
  • Powell said in the press conference "we do see a very, very strong labor market, one where we haven't seen much softening."
  • With basically no change made to the December statement, it would be interesting to see if there was any movement among doves to more firmly signal that they anticipated a pause in the hike cycle would be coming soon (vs maintaining the guidance for "ongoing" hikes).
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