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Dec23 Call-Put Skew Closing with Upside Risk from China Demand

OIL OPTIONS

The Dec23 25 delta call-put skew continues to narrow with Brent in to -3.5% and WTI to 4.5% today. The Brent skew was -8.3% back in November to around -5.3% near the end of Jan.

  • Resilient Russian exports despite sanctions and economic demand concerns are limiting upside in the futures, but the call options are slowly gaining relative to the puts with optimism for the demand recovery in China. Numerous analysts have reduced price forecasts recently with Bank of America yesterday the latest to lower their expectations for this year from 100$/bbl to 88$/bbl.
  • The Brent second month 25 delta call-put skew is holding at -3.1% and the second month WTI skew is currently around -3.7%.
  • The second month ATM implied volatility is at the lowest since Nov 2021 at 34.6% for Brent and 36.1% for WTI.
    • Brent MAY 23 up 0.7% at 82.61$/bbl
    • WTI APR 23 up 0.9% at 76.33$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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