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December CPI Marginally Increases To 8.46%, Above Expectations

PERU
  • Released over the weekend, Lima CPI for December rose 0.79% M/m, above the median surveyed estimate of +0.63%, bringing the annual headline rate to 8.46%, marginally above the November reading. A large portion of the upside pressure came mainly from food prices (+42 bps) resulting in core inflation (excluding energy and food items) falling to 5.58% (from 5.71%).
  • Analysts have noted that the data adds evidence that Peruvian inflation most likely peaked earlier in 2022, but shows it remains well above the target and suggests it may not fall as fast as policy makers expect. As a reminder, the BCRP committee currently expects a return to the target range in Q4 2023, which slightly differed from the prior statement which expected the convergence by the second half of next year, a marginally hawkish tweak.
  • With the December forward guidance remaining unchanged and the above expectation December CPI data, focus turns to the central bank’s next meeting on Jan 12 where the board may continue the hiking cycle, with another 25bp increase of the reference rate to 7.75%.
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