Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE
Friday sees the release of flash December eurozone inflation data. Data already released for the December inflation round (for Spain, Portugal, Belgium, and the German state of Saarland) is broadly consistent with current consensus expectations for Eurozone Y/Y headline HICP of 3.0% (2.4% prior) and core of 3.4% (3.6% prior). (More detail in our full inflation preview, in PDF here.)
- Energy price base effects are expected to provide the biggest upside driver of Y/Y headline inflation, though core HICP is seen decelerating on softer goods prices.More detail in the next note.
- The consensus median would mark the biggest acceleration in headline inflation since October 2022 when it jumped 0.7pp to the record high of 10.7%, and the first uptick since April 2023.
- For core, though it's a different story, with the expected 0.2pp deceleration maintaining the 5-month streak of flat/lower unrounded readings, and a fresh post-March 2022 low.
- HICP inflation came in softer than expected in each of the three months to November, with statistical quirks (German package holiday re-weightings) failing to produce meaningful upside surprises.
- The ECB's December forecasts for 2023 are consistent with expectations of 3.0-3.2% for headline / 3.6-3.8% for core in December, which would incorporate the jump in energy prices noted by Lagarde.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok