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December IPCA Inflation Data Due, BCB On Course For Another 50bp Cut

BRAZIL
  • Market participants will be focused on the IPCA inflation data for December due for release today. Consensus is for a 0.5% m/m increase in prices (vs. +0.28% previously), and a further moderation in the annual rate to 4.55%, from 4.72% in the mid-December read. Itaú have noted that for core inflation, they expect additional deceleration at the margin with IPCA Ex-3 reaching 1.0% (3mma saar), from 1.5% in November (3mma saar), besides some acceleration in underlying services. Data is due at 1200GMT (0700ET):
    • Dec. IPCA Inflation YoY, est. 4.55%, prior 4.68%
    • Dec. IPCA Inflation MoM, est. 0.50%, prior 0.28%
  • The data is seen keeping the BCB on course to cut the SELIC rate by another 50bp at its January 31st meeting. Furthermore, central bank officials have committed to this easing pace for the coming meetings, keeping expectations clearly set for Q1. Following the IPCA data, US CPI inflation figures for December (1330GMT/0830ET) will take centre stage.
  • Still with the central bank, the BCB workers union is due to go on a 24-hour strike today, which may result in operational interruptions in all central bank services. Union leaders estimate more than 70% of employees will adhere to the stoppage. Elsewhere, former Brazil Supreme Court Justice Ricardo Lewandowski is expected to be announced as the new Minister of justice, according to local newspaper O Globo, and should take office next week.
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