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Decent Action on Narrow Range Ahead Wed's FOMC

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys hold mildly weaker levels by Tuesday's close, holding to a narrow range in the lead-up to Wednesday's FOMC policy annc. Some early post-data chop preceded some brief action following the Tsy 20Y bond auction.

  • Choppy post data trade as upward revisions (+0.9%) to Apr softened May retail sales miss ( -1.3%), PPI beat exp (+0.8%). Knee jerk reaction pushed futures near top end overnight range before rates sold off, extending session low slightly. Sources reported decent two-way trade volumes as fast$, prop accts buying 5s and 10s, bank selling 10s and 30s.
  • Tsys futures pared loess after strong $24B 20Y auction re-open: drawing a high yield of 2.120% (2.286% last month) vs. 2.137% WI. Bid-to-cover 2.4 vs. 2.24 in May.
  • Indirect take-up climbed to 62.07% (highest since October 2020) vs. 56.72% in May. Primary dealer take-up falls to lowest in over a year to 17.53% vs. 23.75.51% prior. Direct take-up 20.40% vs. 19.51% prior.
  • Another decent day for corporate issuance with foreign banks issuing $8.8B after Mon's $9.35B.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.8bps at 0.165%, 5-Yr is up 0.2bps at 0.7838%, 10-Yr is up 0.3bps at 1.4973%, and 30-Yr is up 1.5bps at 2.1975%.
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