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Betting market data from Smarkets shows Defence Secretary Ben Wallace as favourite to emerge as the next Conservative party leader following a YouGov poll of Conservative members earlier today showing him as the potential candidate with the strongest appeal.

  • Wallace now on a 25.6% implied probability of becoming the next leader, with former Chancellor Rishi Sunak second on 16.1% and Minister for Trade Policy Penny Mordaunt third on 12.2%.
  • Two Conservative heavyweights, Deputy PM and Justice Secretary Dominic Raab and former Leveling Up Secretary Michael Gove, have ruled themselves out of running for the leadership according to some outlets.
  • Still no confirmation of when leadership contest will take place, and how long PM Johnson might be able to remain in office despite his resignation earlier today.

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Becoming Next Conservative Leader (Last 3 Days), %

Source: Smarkets

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