US DATA
- Within the NY Fed’s household and credit report, aggregate delinquency rates increased slightly in Q4 with 3.6% (+0.1pp) of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency for a new high since 2020.
- The transition into delinquency (30+ days) meanwhile was near unchanged, with 4.14% in Q4 vs 4.13% in Q3, a break from having steadily climbed ever since 1.9% in 2Q21.
- This rate remains low historically though, below the 2019 average of 4.65%, although the difference is almost entirely down to the adjustment lower in student loan delinquencies following the Biden administration forbearance.
- Indeed, all other major sectors see higher delinquency rates than immediately before the pandemic, most notably credit cards (+2.2pts at 9.0%) and auto loans (+1.1pts at 8.1%) – that said, both of those have seen broadly steady transition rates in latest quarters rather than a continued increase.
- As for the transition into serious delinquency (90+ days), the 1.7% in Q4 was also near unchanged from the 1.68% in Q3 as the increased from 0.7% in 2021 has plateaued.
- Here, the clear standout are credit cards at 7%, far above pre-pandemic levels, and also auto loans at 3.0%, which may have levelled off through most of 2024 but at a level that’s not far from the 3.5% peak seen in 2009.
- Delinquency rates have received less public attention in Fedspeak since the labor market started to surprise positively again later in the second half of 2024. Some of the more dovish FOMC members were Goolsbee saying delinquency rates offered a “warning” in August and Cook warned they “bear watching” back in June. The latest data are unlikely to ring any alarm bells but there remains some areas of more notable concern in certain sectors.
- See our commentary after last week’s soaring of consumer credit growth in December, here.
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