August 08, 2022 17:43 GMT
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Democrats have closed to within .1% on the generic ballot at the US Congress prepares to enter the August recess.
- According to both the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregators the margin is .1%.
- The FiveThirtyEight modeler, which runs a model based upon polling data, voting history, fundraising, and expert analysis, shows that Republicans are still heavily favoured to take control of the House but the margin is steadily tightening.
Figure 1: Generic Ballot (FiveThirtyEight)
Figure 2: House of Representatives model over time (FiveThirtyEight)
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