Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The first opinion poll released to be carried out in the aftermath of President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race shows a bump in support for the Democrats. While Vice President Kamala Harris trails Republican candidate former President Donald Trump, she is within the margin of error of pulling level in the Morning Consult pollconducted 21-22 July.
- Trump leads Harris by 47% to 45%, with 4% backing other candidates and 5% unsure. With a margin of error of 2%, this could mean Trump leading by an even greater margin or a dead heat. This is an improvement from the 18-20 July poll that showed Biden trailing Trump by 6%, well outside the MoE.
- Harris' candidacy has provided some optimism among Democratic voters, with 28% of Democrat respondents saying the term 'excited' describes their feelings about the election 'very well', up from 22% in the 12-14 July poll. Twenty-eight per cent of Democrat respondents said they were 'much more motivated' to participate in politics during the election, ahead of Republicans on 24%.
- Morning Consult: "...despite the fact that Trump remains the favorite, it’s now clear that Harris’ ascendance should increase the odds of a Democratic victory given the erosion in Biden’s position over the past several days."
Source: Morning Consult. Survey conducted July 21-22, 2024, among a representative sample of 4,001 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Chart 2. Shares of voters who said they were more motivated to participate in politics this election season after hearing that Joe Biden will no longer be seeking a second term, %
Survey conducted July 21-22, 2024, among a representative sample of 4,001 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.