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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
- Last month, the NBH started a tightening cycle and raised its benchmark rate by 30bps to 0.9% in order to curb the inflationary pressures.
- Odds for another 30bps hike at the next meeting (July 27) have been rising significantly following the higher-than-expected CPI print in June (+5.3% YoY vs. 4.9% exp.).
- In addition, the rising uncertainty over the legal conflict with the EU combined and the Delta variant have been weighing on the HUF, which has been trending lower since the beginning of July as preference for 'safe' haven such as the US Dollar has been increasing.
- EURHUF is currently trading at 360, up from 345 in early June, and gradually approaching its key resistance at 370. A move above that level could push NBH policymakers to hike rates even more aggressively in the following meetings as HUF weakness will continue to intensify the inflationary pressures.
- We know that an aggressive tightening in a period of elevated economic and political uncertainty could lead to a sharp drop in growth expectations.
- Consensus for EURHUF for year-end currently stands at 350, but analysts could start to review their forecasts to the upside if the uncertainty keeps surging in the coming weeks.
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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